Policy forecasting is the processes that use the
data / statistics that will help the policy maker
make a prediction on what solutions will be
suggested to solve the public problem.
In this case, the policy maker must thinks
first what kind of policy that we want to do
in solving the problems that have arise within
this country.
For example, what is the action taken by the
government to reduce the cases of car accidents
based on the previous data since this cases is the
major cases on the public problems.
Quantitative methods refers to the techniques
or procedure that rely with the data or statistics
and statistical model to predict and project
future direction.
There are three advantages and disadvantages
of quantitative methods for forecasting that is
objectives which it provides the models in order
to understand the problem such as using the
causal modelling theories. The second
disadvantages is data is costly since it involves
a lot of sample sizes such as large survey.
The last disadvantages of the quantitative
method is need the persons who is advance
with using the data or statistics or it is also
known as an experts in the mathematical
operation.
In this case, the person who is experts in using
the data or statistics need to pay a higher cost
because it requires a lot of thinking such as
planning and the management of time.
There are two approaches in the quantitative
methods that is trend extrapolation and
theoretical assumption.
Trend extrapolation is the prediction between
what is occur on the pass will be occur in the
future which provided that no new policies or
unforeseen events will involve someone else
to change the events.
Theoretical assumptions are systematically
structured and empirically testable sets of
laws or prepositions which make a prediction
about what is happening of the event.
For example, the two approaches can be seen
by using time-series method and causal
modelling because it shows the cause of effects
such as whoever is doing the crime what will be
the cause and effects of it towards the
government and the society.
Thus, thus approaches need to make a
prediction between pass and what will it be in the
future by make a research about that particular
cases.