Judgement & Decision (ACS)

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Big dabate over judgement in academia

Judgement & Decision Making

More recent views on decision making

Situation awareness

Projection of their status in the future

The comprehension of their meaning

perception of elements in the environment given time/space

Naturalistic (Klein)

Fireman

Study of how people make decisions in complex, varied in situ environments

Ethnography

Judgement bias

Sensitive to loss than gain

Recency effect

tend to remember items/actions at the end

Primacy effects

tend to remember items/actions at the beginning than the end

e.g. used in the classroom

Confirmation bias

memory is distorted by expectations

Recognition heuristic

Support theory

an event will appear more likely if it is supported by a description

why? it may draw attention to what could happenor memory limitations may mean people do not rememer al of the relevantinfo if it is not supplied

Availability heuristic

estimating requencey of events based on how easy it is to recall the relevent info from LTMe.g. letter r, more start of words, or third letter words.

Representative heuristics

e.g. if someone has learned to use a button by double clicking,they will continue to do this?

events that are representatyive or typical of a class are assigned a high probabilityof occurance

Ignoring base rates, only surface evidence used,

Decision support systems

Cognitive tools aim to support adaptive decision making rather than replace decision maker e.g. spreadsheets for 'what-if'

Cognitive prothesis aims to reduce poor decision making of the human (traditional export systems)

Classic views on decision making

Simons Satisficing model(Descriptive)

heuristics can lead to biases or poor decisions

in line with that we have limited cognitive resources & time

generate alternatives until a good enough one is found. might not be best

opt for a choice that is good enough

Bayes Theorem(Normative)

We don't know the probabilities

futher studies show we tend to forget / ignore the base rate

probabilties of base rate and likelyhood ratio.

Definitions:

Judgement: the process used in drawing clusions from the knowledge and evidence available

concerned with accuracy

Decision Making: Concerned with choosing among options

concerned with potential consequences