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Ludic fallacy

we take risks - because we don't know we take them - we're blindfolded

Uncertainity principle

Black swan in History/Philosophy

Karl Marks

Doctor's - Empiricists

Philosopher's through time got domain dependent

Hume's Problem

Silent evidence

Neil Fergusson

overcausation

wrote a paper although we think IWW predictable the bound market did not predict it

fun with data

probability problem

people don't write biographies - "how I lost one million dollars"

we take only pool of information and dicard the rest

we compute probability on those who survive, not all

I world war - tension between England and Germany

you don't look at episodes of tension that do not let to the war

Ignore experts

Subtopic

Why are we suspicious of the bishop and be a sucker when it comes to an economist

Robert Tivers

we're not good at predicting wars

2 rules

Never take advice from someone wearing suit and tie

Never ask barber if you need haircut

Phillip Tetlock

processed 27 000 predictions

Tunnell

Mathematicians

Mediocristan is easily mathematized and will be mathematized

small number of equations is useful

Domains

Extremesitan

dominated by the exceptions

Whenever you take a large sample, a small number of observations in that domain will represent a big share of a total

Weigh thousand people and add one person that is the wealthiest you can think of

Mediocristan

paid by the hour

dominated by the collective

When sample is large, exceptions can happen, but they will not screw with the result

The law of large numbers

Weigh thousand people and add one person that is the heaviest you can think of

Dynamic Revision "palimpsest"

you don't remember what you actually predicted, but you revise your memory to adapt your prediction to current outcome

Black swan

History of the turkey - that gets fed for thousand days

an event not a bird

illusion of predictability post factum

low predictability, high consequence

I world war

a tie

very difficult to predict, based on prior information

Australia

you're sooner see a black swan